Expected Value
Blaise Pascal · Model
Pre-Mortem
Gary Klein · Paper
Base Rates
Daniel Kahneman · Book
Regret Minimization
Jeff Bezos · Talk
Opportunity Cost
Friedrich von Wieser · Model
Asymmetric Payoffs
Nassim Taleb · Model
The Cynefin Framework
Dave Snowden · Framework
The Hard Choice Model
Ruth Chang · Framework
Five Tips to Improve Your Critical Thinking
Samantha Agoos · Video lesson
The Demon of Reason: Logical Fallacies
TED-Ed · Video collection
To Solve a Tough Problem, Reframe It
Harvard Business Review · Article
The 5 Whys Method
Sakichi Toyoda / Toyota Production System · Framework
Negotiate Like a CEO
Eric Partaker (compiling Lewicki, Fisher, Ury, Hiam) · Infographic
80/20 Strategic Planning
Justin Mecham · X (Twitter) thread
The Eisenhower Matrix
Attributed to Dwight D. Eisenhower · Framework
The Casino's Four Gears: Edge, Volume, Sizing, and Bankroll
John Kelly Jr.; Edward Thorp · Framework