Regret Minimization
Jeff Bezos · 1997
"Project yourself to 80 and choose the option you'll regret least."
Bezos used this to decide whether to leave a stable Wall Street job for an internet bookstore. He asked: at 80, will I regret trying and failing? No. Will I regret not trying at all? Yes. The answer collapsed the decision instantly.
The framework works because regret is asymmetric in a specific way: we regret inactions more than actions in the long run. Short-term risks feel enormous; long-term, the pain of 'what if' outweighs the pain of concrete failures. Regret minimization surfaces this by moving your reference point to the end of your life.
Regret minimization mostly protects against which asymmetry?
Read more about the topic
The explanation above is written with AI assistance. These are the originals — go to them to check it.
- Jeff Bezos on Regret MinimizationAcademy of Achievement
The Casino's Four Gears: Edge, Volume, Sizing, and Bankroll
"A tiny, repeatable statistical edge becomes a near-certain profit only when combined with three other things — enormous volume, bets sized to the edge rather than to conviction, and a bankroll large enough to survive a bad stretch. Miss any one of the four and having an edge stops mattering."