Contemporary · Macro & Investing · Framework
The Memory Supercycle: When Demand Outruns What Physics Can Build
SK hynix (Chey Tae-won); TSMC; ASML · 2026
"AI demand for compute and memory is compounding faster than physical fabrication capacity can be built, because building a new chip fab takes five-plus years no matter how much capital is thrown at it — creating a structural, multi-year supply gap that no amount of urgent spending can close early."
SK hynix's chairman says customers want 4x-5x more memory supply, but even doubling wafer capacity will take until 2030. TSMC and ASML both raised 2026 capital spending guidance mid-year and are still telling investors the demand-supply gap is 'really big' and unquantifiable.
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