How to Use Occam's Razor Without Getting Cut
Farnam Street (Shane Parrish), after William of Ockham · 2019
"Among competing explanations that fit the evidence equally well, the one that requires the fewest assumptions should be preferred — but Occam's Razor is a tool for narrowing initial hypotheses, not a substitute for evidence, and misapplying it (assuming 'simple' always beats 'accurate') can mislead badly."
Occam's Razor states that among hypotheses making equally accurate predictions, the one requiring the fewest assumptions should be preferred, because it's easier to verify, falsify, and act on — the classic medical version is 'when you hear hoofbeats, think horses, not zebras,' meaning doctors should favor the most common explanation for a set of symptoms over a rare, exotic one, all else being equal.
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Second-Order Thinking
"First-level thinking says 'and then what?' once. Second-level thinking keeps asking."