Deductive vs Inductive Reasoning
Farnam Street (Shane Parrish) · 2018
"Deduction moves from general premises to a certain conclusion (if the premises are true, the conclusion must be true); induction moves from specific observations to a probable — never certain — general conclusion, and confusing the two (treating an inductive leap as if it had deductive certainty) is a common source of bad reasoning."
Deductive reasoning starts from a general premise assumed true (all men are mortal), applies a specific case (Socrates is a man), and reaches a conclusion that must be true if the premises are (Socrates is mortal) — it's binary, either valid or invalid. Inductive reasoning draws a general or probable conclusion from specific observations (all the swans I've seen are white, so swans are probably white) — it's a matter of degree (strong or weak), never certain, and always open to revision by a single disconfirming case (a black swan).
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