Canonical · Compounding & Time · Model

Lindy Effect

Nassim Taleb · 2012

"The longer an idea or object has survived, the longer it is likely to keep surviving."

The idea

For non-perishable things — books, technologies, institutions — every extra year of existence increases the expected remaining life. A book still read after 400 years is likely to be read for centuries more. A trendy 6-month-old technology probably won't be.

Why it works

The takeaway — recall it first

Pace Layering

"A durable civilization runs on six layers moving at different speeds — fashion, commerce, infrastructure, governance, culture, nature. The fast layers innovate and get all the attention; the slow layers stabilize and hold all the power. Trouble comes when one layer is forced to move at another's pace."

Stewart Brand · Book ConceptContinue→