Skip to content
← The Scroll
Canonical · Paper

Path Dependence

Paul David · 1985

"Where you end up depends on where you started and every step in between."

The idea

The QWERTY keyboard isn't optimal — it was designed for mechanical typewriters. But we're stuck with it because every keyboard, every typist, and every training program built on the last one. Small early accidents can lock in outcomes for centuries.

Why it works

Path dependence emerges when there are increasing returns to adoption — each user makes the next user's choice easier. Networks, standards, careers, and cities all show it. The lesson isn't that early choices are always right; it's that they're often permanent, so early bets deserve more thought than late ones.

The takeaway — recall it first
Check your understanding

Which is the best example of path dependence?

Further reading

Read more about the topic

The explanation above is written with AI assistance. These are the originals — go to them to check it.

  • Clio and the Economics of QWERTYpaper
Up NextSuggested: Continues the theme of Compounding & Time

Lindy Effect

"The longer an idea or object has survived, the longer it is likely to keep surviving."

Nassim Taleb · ModelContinue→
Listen
0 / 6