Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead
Leopold Aschenbrenner · 2024
"AGI by ~2027 and superintelligence shortly after will trigger a trillion-dollar compute buildout and a US-China race."
Leopold Aschenbrenner's viral 2024 essay predicting that Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) is imminent (by ~2027) and will trigger an explosive national security crisis and a literal intelligence explosion.
Aschenbrenner (a former OpenAI researcher) extrapolates the current exponential curves of AI compute and algorithmic efficiency. He argues that the jump from GPT-2 to GPT-4 will be replicated, bringing us to AGI by the end of the decade. Once AGI exists, it will automate AI research itself, compressing decades of scientific progress into months. He warns that the US government will inevitably step in to nationalize the massive trillion-dollar data centers required, turning AGI into a fierce geopolitical arms race with China.
According to 'Situational Awareness', what happens immediately after AGI is achieved?
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The explanation above is written with AI assistance. These are the originals — go to them to check it.
- Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead (Aschenbrenner, 2024)House overview
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