Canonical · Decision-Making · Book
Base Rates
Daniel Kahneman · 2011
"Anchor to what usually happens before adjusting for what makes this case special."
When forecasting, most people describe what makes their situation unique and forget the base rate — how often the outcome occurs across all similar situations. Most startups fail. Most books don't sell. Most projects run over budget. That prior should be the starting point.
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The Cynefin Framework
"You cannot manage a complex system the same way you manage a complicated one. You must adapt your decision-making to the domain you are in."
Dave Snowden · FrameworkContinue→